NFL Thursday Night Primer

Trends favor the Giants against the WFT in National TV clash of division rivals

Sep 15, 2021

The New York Giants (0-1) head down to the Nation’s capital to face the Washington Football Team on Thursday Night Football.

Current spread: WFT -3.5….Over/Under 40.5 points

Line movement: The line opened at 4 and the O/U opened at 42.5 points

Last week…..the Giants dropped their home opener to the Denver Broncos, 27-13 while the WFT fell, 20-16, to the Los Angeles Chargers at home.

The Rivalry

The Giants have won five of the last six meetings straight up and are 4-1 ATS (against the spread) in their last five games played in Washington.

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones - who has a lifetime record as a starter of 8-19 - is 4-0 against the WFT with a QB rating of 100.0, 8 TD passes and just 3 INT.

Trends (courtesy Covers.com)

The Giants are…

4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC East.
6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.
9-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.
15-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

The WFT is….

5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. NFC East.
8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up loss.
3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 2.
1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

Over/Under

All indicators have both teams trending UNDER. Never seen anything trend so strongly in one direction for both teams. No wonder the O/U has been dropping. Get in on that before it drops further.

Injuries

Giants: LB Cam Brown (hamstring), G Shane Lemieux (knee), TE Evan Engram (calf) - All three did not participate in practices this week.

WFT: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (hip, IR); RB Antonio Gibson (shoulder) was a full participant on Tuesday at practice.

The Pick

Giants and UNDER as per all of the data laid out above. This game will be close and you’re better off with that 1/2 point in you pocket if the game comes down to a FG.

Fantasy Outlook

Both defenses are in play - strongly. In showdown situations you may want to consider playing both. Also, in what is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle, both kickers - Graham Gano and Dustin Hopkins - should be considered.

Giants: Obviously Jones is in play here given his past performance. The WFT allowed 337 yards passing and a TD to Justin Herbert last week. WR Sterling Shepard had 113 yards on seven catches and a TD in Week 1. Kenny Golladay is ramping up and could be a sneaky gem in this one. Never discount Darius Slayton, either. He’s Jones’ favorite target. RB Saquon Barkley is still a ‘hands off’ until we see him back and handling a full load. Engram is likely out again and we didn’t see a whole lot from the other tight ends last week.

WFT: The Giants allowed 5.9 yards per rush against Denver in Week 1, so Gibson and J.D. McKissic - who has had strong games against the Giants in the past - are strong options as is WR Terry McLaurin. TE Logan Thomas is almost a given here as the Giants have a hard time with tight ends.