NFL Week 12 Preview and Fantasy

Let's try this gains, shall we?

After a week in which we got all of our picks wrong and still managed to make money in DFS and in the prop parlay world we are staying away from the picks business for awhile and focusing more on providing pertinent information to our readers.

Let’s concentrate on Sunday’s main slate - the 1:00 and 4:00 windows. Here’s a quick rundown with some commentary and notes from The Action Network that you’ll hopefully find helpful.

Worth a Watch

San Francisco (5-5) at Green Bay (7-3)

The Line: Packers -5.5 O/U 44.5 ML: Packers -250, 49ers +200

49ers QB Brock Purdy (shoulder) is OUT. Brandon Allen will be at quarterback this week.

Kyle Shanahan has faced the Packers seven times in his career. He is 3-0 SU in the playoffs and 1-3 SU during the regular season.

The role as a favorite hasn’t been too kind to Jordan Love. Love is 4-7 ATS as a favorite in his short career and 10-7 ATS as an underdog. In Love’s 28-start NFL career, he’s already had two separate 4-game ATS losing streaks, including the one he is on right now.

Minnesota (8-2) at Chicago (4-6)

The Line: Vikings -3.5 O/U: 39.5 ML: Vikings -185, Bears +155

The Vikings have won and covered four straight road games in Chicago since the start of the 2020 season – their best road ATS streak in Chicago since 1965. Prior to this 4-game stretch, Minnesota was 3-16 SU and 4-14-1 ATS in Chicago in their 19 previous trips.

Caleb Williams has been sacked 41 times through 11 weeks — most for any QB this season. Through Week 11, it's the most any Bears QB since sacks tracked. Since 2000, only 2020 Carson Wentz, 2006 Andrew Walter and 2005 David Carr had 41+ sacks in 11 games with a lower Y/A than Caleb’s 6.2.

Detroit (9-1) at Indianapolis (5-6)

The Line: Lions -7.5 O/U 50.5 ML: Lions -400, Colts +310

Last week, the Lions were the first double-digit favorite since 2012 to win by 45+ pts. Since 2015, teams after winning by 35+ pts are 23-34-1 ATS, but they are 3-1 ATS this season. When they are favored by above 4 pts, they are 23-37 ATS since 2003.

With the Lions, QB Jared Goff has started eight road games where his opponent is under .500 SU on the season. Detroit is just 2-6 SU in those games, losing by 10.3 PPG. When he was the QB of the Rams, he went 11-3 SU in this spot.

Historically, the Colts have been a tough team to cover big numbers against in Indy. They are 13-2 ATS as home dogs of 6+ in the last 30 years.

Arizona (6-4) at Seattle (5-5)

The Line: Cardinals -1 O/U 47.5 ML: Cardinals -110, Seahawks -110

The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS at home this season, failing to cover the spread by 5 PPG. For what once was a place where cover dreams went to die, Seattle is just 8-15 ATS at home since 2022, 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Patriots. Since the beginning of last season, Geno Smith is 3-10 ATS at home – the worst mark for any QB in the NFL.

The Cardinals have covered the spread in three straight games vs. NFC West. Prior to this streak since the end of last season, they were 1-13 ATS in their previous 14 games in division. Even with this 3-game ATS win streak, Kyler Murray is just 9-14-2 ATS vs. NFC West in his career – 4-2-1 ATS vs. 49ers and 5-12-1 ATS vs. the Seahawks and Rams.

Cover Your Eyes

Kansas City (9-1) at Carolina (3-7)

The Line: Chiefs -11 O/U 43 ML: Chiefs -700, Panthers +500

Chiefs are massive favorites in Carolina this week. Here are Patrick Mahomes’ biggest spreads as a favorite in any game away from home. As a double-digit favorite away from home, Mahomes ia 4-0 SU but just 0-3-1 ATS in those games.

Tennessee (2-8) at Houston (7-4)

The Line: Texans -7.5 O/U 40.5 ML: Texans -400, Titans +310

Texans have dominated the Titans recently. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings, including DeMeco Ryans being 2-0 SU/ATS against them.

Over the last full two calendar years – Nov. 24, 2022 to 2024, the Titans are 9-23-2 ATS (28%), the worst mark of any team in the NFL – the only team with fewer than 10 covers. When they’ve faced a divisional opponent in that span, they are 2-8 ATS.

New England (3-8) at Miami (4-6)

The Line: Dolphins -7.5 O/U 46.5 ML: Dolphins -400, Patriots +310

The Patriots have fared well vs. the Jets, but not to much the rest of the division since Tom Brady left. They are 6-3 ATS vs. Jets and 4-11 ATS vs. Dolphins and Bills.

This year, the Dolphins are 1-4 ATS at home. Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015. Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 19-11 ATS at home and 13-14-1 ATS away from home in his career.

Tampa Bay (4-6) at NY Giants (2-8)

The Line: Buccaneers -6 O/U 41 ML: Buccaneers -275, Giants +225

Tommy DeVito has started six career games for the Giants. He is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS at home. The good thing for DeVito, he is facing a Bucs defense allowing 26.6 PPG, allowing 23 pts or more in six straight games. In DeVito’s six starts, the four opponents with the worst PPG defenses he’s faced, he is 4-0 ATS. The two best defenses, he’s 0-2 ATS.

Dallas (3-7) at Washington (7-4)

The Line: Commanders -10.5 O/U 45 ML: Commanders -600, Cowboys +450

The Cowboys have lost five consecutive games both SU and ATS entering this week. That hasn’t happened in Dallas since 2010. The last time they lost 6 straight both SU and ATS? Back in 1988-89, when they lost 7 games SU and ATS.

Last 20 years, Dallas is 17-21 ATS vs. Washington. Dak is 10-3 ATS, all other QBs are 7-18 ATS.

Denver (6-5) at Las Vegas (2-8)

The Line: Broncos -6 O/U 41 ML: Broncos -275, Raiders +225

Bo Nix is 5-1 ATS on the road this season, tied with Joe Burrow for the best mark in the NFL.

Raiders are currently tied for the lead in turnovers on offense with 20 this season and their turnover differential of -15 is tied for their worst through ten games in franchise history.

Fantasy Corner

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels has a prime matchup against the Cowboys this week. DAL has allowed the 28th most FPS to QBs this year.

We also like Bo Nix vs LV, Tommy DeVito vs TB, CJ Stroud vs TEN and Anthony Richardson vs DET.

Running Back

Isaiah Pacheco is OUT again for KC, so load up on Kareem Hunt against CAR this week. Brian Robinson, Jr should have a field day vs DAL on Sunday.

The Giants are throwing caution to the wind after the Daniel Jones fiasco, so that means their young players are all in play, mainly Tyrone Tracy, Jr.

Other spot plays….Kenneth Walker III vs ARI, Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery vs IND, James Conner vs SEA and Devon Achane vs NE.

Tight End

Always keep an eye on Travis Kelce if you can fit him in DFS but beware the Noah Gray handcuff in the red zone. Sam LaPorta has a solid matchup vs IND.

Rookie Brock Bowers appears to be matchup-proof.

The NYG-TB game has two interesting plays in Cade Otten and rookie Theo Johnson. NE’s Hunter Henry is gaining a solid rapport with rookie QB Drake Maye.

Wide Receiver

The Vikings have allowed the second-most FPS to WRs this season, so we’re looking at both D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze this week. The same goes for the Colts’ talented trio of Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jr and Alec Pierce vs DET on Sunday.

We love Wan’Dale Robinson vs TB and Tyreek Hill vs NE. Also, don’t sleep on Courtland Sutton vs LV and Calvin Ridley vs HOU.

Defense/ST

Houston, Denver, Kansas City